| Rate of Link Decay |
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| Written by Bret Fausett | |
| Monday, 30 July 2007 | |
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Pardon me while I drill down a minute. The value of a domain name is primarily driven by two factors: its resale value and the value of its traffic. Those aren't necessarily separate. For most domain names, resale value is a function of a name's traffic. So at point of sale, a buyer is very interested in current and historic traffic. What exactly is "traffic"? It's the sum of type-in traffic plus linked-in traffic plus search-referred traffic. When you consider that, owing to Pagerank, search-referred traffic is itself a function of linked-in traffic, linked-in traffic is an incredibly important factor when appraising a domain name. Which brings me to today's meditation: how do you evaluate the quality of the linked-in traffic on a name up for sale? In one category, I'll put the links from archives. These are links you can be reasonably sure will stay for more than three years. (I picked three years out of thin air -- it's just hard to think about anything on the Internet in terms longer than three years. I view three years as a very long time in Internet time.) These "archival links," as we'll call them, come from places like, well, archive.org or old usenet posts or any site that maintains records for In another category, at the opposite end of the spectrum, I'll put the links from sites controlled by the current registrant of the name that's up for sale. These are "weak links." These weak links are coming down as soon as the domain name is transferred. Historic traffic generated by weak links should be assigned almost no value by the buyer in a domain name transaction. Finally, I see a vast middle ground of user-generated links. Let's call these "organic links." They've developed organically over time as users liked what they saw on your web site and decided to link to it. These organic links not only drive traffic but they also are a critical factor in your site's Pagerank. I'd like to know more about these organic links. What I'd specifically like to find is the average rate of decay of an organic link. In other words, how long will these organic links be sending traffic to my web site? What's the shelf life of an organic link? If you want to fairly value a domain name, this is something you'll want to know. I've started the research, and while I can find loads of literature on the fact of link decay and the observation that link decay is a problem (a problem, that is, for researchers, academics and librarians), I can't find anything quantifying the problem. These two articles come close (one | two), but they focus on links from academic journals, not the web generally, so I question the value of the data for domain valuation purposes. Something to study. Helpful results might look like this: "The average organic link remains fixed for 2.8 years. 90% of organic links remain in place for at least 6 months. 75% are in place at one year. 40% are in place after two years...." I made that up, but you get the picture. So what are the real numbers?
Please Enter New Tags Separated By Comma's
Or Close Appraisal 
Archival Links 
Domain Name Valuation 
Link Decay 
Organic Links 
Traffic 
Weak Links 
Comments (79)
  written by Prithviraj.K.R, December 04, 2008  written by Wow accounts, January 29, 2009
yes the name in the url plays a major role.If it had the keyword with the same name.
 written by http://www.newhamps.com/, February 27, 2009
really awesome article mate. Thanks for sharing.
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The optimist says this gives him lots of time to build the sweat equity that will become the foundation of his fortune -- but the contrarian in me says he just cut off his positive cash flow.
 written by Doug, March 02, 2009
There is an inherent problem with trying to research this as it presumes you know or it is knowable what organic links you have.
I have sites with true organic links and I discover them via looking at referrer logs. But that is tedious and incomplete (what if nobody clicks on the links to me?). We all know that the "link:" syntax is incomplete in Google, and in yahoo the site explorer gives more but still incomplete. So lacking a full picture of what incoming organic links exist how can we determine their decay? Any analysis is going to be incomplete because it will only include those links which we can find, which are a biased subset of the whole. From experience those are mostly forum links, which therefore are at the mercy of the forum administrator keeping their board running. This isn't to say it's not an important topic, but I can't imagine doing any meaningful research on it. Now "traded links" decaying; that I have data on and it varies with time and industry. I've seen as little as 25% a year and as much as 60% a year.  written by ING Annuities, March 26, 2009
I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don’t know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.Joyce
 written by vancl, March 29, 2009
Any analysis is going to be incomplete because it will only include those links which we can find, which are a biased subset of the whole. From experience those are mostly forum links, which therefore are at the mercy of the forum administrator keeping their board running.
VANCL Mobile Games Mini Games  written by Packed, April 02, 2009
Oh GOD!These are "weak links." These weak links are coming down as soon as the domain name is transferred.
 written by Resume Writing Service, April 06, 2009
The links are good and the matter is interesting.I'll put the links from archives. These are links you can be reasonably sure will stay for more than three years. (I picked three years out of thin air.it's just hard to think about anything on the Internet in terms longer than three years.
 written by Custom Essays, April 06, 2009
Great stuff! In one category, I'll put the links from archives. These are links you can be reasonably sure will stay for more than three years. (I picked three years out of thin air -- it's just hard to think about anything on the Internet in terms longer than three years.
 written by Koxp, April 18, 2009
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 written by VCP-310, April 23, 2009
Nice info, This isn't to say it's not an important topic, but I can't imagine doing any meaningful research on it.
 written by Full Tilt Bonus Code, April 29, 2009
This is a constantly evolving issue. Just when we think we know how to value links, algorythms along with opinions change. I agree though that true organic, quality links are all that should be given a value. There are too many weak links that essentially don't help the value or serps results for sites.
 written by research paper writing, May 09, 2009
interesting post, but still good links lives for long
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How long will these organic links be sending traffic to my web site? What's the shelf life of an organic link? If you want to fairly value a domain name, this is something you'll want to know.
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These weak links are coming down as soon as the domain name is transferred. Historic traffic generated by weak links should be assigned almost no value by the buyer in a domain name transaction.
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Ah, we all know about link decay. You need to replace as quickly as they go.
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I see a vast middle ground of user-generated links. Let's call these "organic links." They've developed organically over time as users liked what they saw on your web site and decided to link to it.
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Thanks for your help!
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 written by AirJordansForce, July 03, 2009
Nice job, you guy! Link decay might be a big issue for all SEOs.
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Rate of Link Decay
Written by Bret Fausett
Monday, 30 July 2007